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Riding the success of the Butler Bulldogs, Angela Penney (WHAC) took a serious bite out of the competition last night. Currently in first place, Penney also has a big lead in the projected standings, which means she has the most opportunities to keep or extend her lead. That fact is also reflected in the updated Player Scenarios report. Out of a possible 2,048 outcomes, 550 will result in Penney winning the championship.

Of course, the raw math doesn’t tell the whole story. Although Penney picked up a big win last night, she’ll need the Bulldogs to keep winning. Her pick of Butler over Syracuse looks prescient right now, but her pick of Butler advancing all the way to the championship game may still prove foolhardy.

Congrats to the six other people who also picked the Butler upset last night: Adam Lombard, Aaron Atchinson, Liz Reinhart, Mary Kate Gergel, Jennifer Darrell, and Sophie Land.

On the other hand, Myszka’s championship hopes were seriously threatened by Syracuse’s loss. The former leader is not out of the running yet, but to stay alive he’ll need an upset of his own tonight: Purdue over Duke. It’s his birthday today, so maybe the Boilermakers will give him a nice present.  

Although the field of championship contenders has been thinned, 17 players can still win it all, and dozens of players can still finish in the prizes. And then there’s Matthew Melick (the entire bracket), who is the only player in the field who can still finish first—or last.

One of the 17 players still with a shot is Janelle Agren. Agren first entered the pool in 2005 when she was a seventh-grader. Her average place over the last five years is 36.2, but if Kansas State can keep pulling out victories like it did last night, Agren may win her first championship—not to mention a great new t-shirt to wear on the first day of college orientation next fall. Agren has already been in one championship game this school year—as a senior setter for the Cadillac Vikings state runner-up volleyball team.