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Tournament Scenarios Posted


The tournament may be down to just four teams, but the Challenge still has six players who can walk away with the championship, the most at this stage since at least 2008. In addition to those six players, seven others still have a shot at finishing in the top three to win a prize.


Here are the Super Six, in order of current place:


The Raj: Rajiv Shah, an IT specialist at Illinois State University and accomplished legal scholar, took over the Challenge lead on Sunday. He will stay there if Kansas beats Kentucky in the final, edging Senor Wences by just one point. The Raj is the proud father of the mighty Mr. Beastly, who, if you remember, was our co-leader after Day One. But in a cruel twist of fate only Sophocles could imagine, Mr. Beastly is now all alone in 98th place with no hope of advancing (much to the relief of G-baby, who barely avoided consecutive last place finishes). It goes without saying that 10-year-old Mr. Beastly doesnÕt like losing, especially to dear old Dad. Winning the championship may send The Raj into a state of euphoria, but it may also send him to the nearest oracle.


It wonÕt come to that, though, if Piotr Dabrowski, currently in third place, continues his hot streak. The couch surfer and Don Johnson superfan has the best mathematical odds at winning. Whereas the other five players can only win under one scenario, Dabrowski can win under three. He will win if Louisville beats either Ohio State or Kansas, and he will also win if Kansas beats Louisville. First, though, Louisville has to beat Kentucky.


If they donÕt, then former leader KB (Katy Buoscio), currently in sixth place, still has a shot to flaunt that t-shirt in front of big Don Christol. KB needs Kentucky to beat Ohio State in the final to collect.


If Kentucky beats Kansas, then Erdy (David Erdman) will be this yearÕs champion. Erdy was the first person to submit his picks, and his eagerness has been matched by his prowess this year. Erdman has now competed in seven of the last eight years, with his best finish being a 13th place showing in 2006. Other than that year, however, itÕs been mostly misses for the buck slayer from Cadillac. He currently ranks 33rd of 34 in the All-Time Average Place list, but heÕs guaranteed at least a 17th place finish this year, so those numbers should greatly improve.


Theodore Broosevelt (David Hughes, 15th place) will be cheering for the exact opposite teams as Erdy. Broosevelt needs Ohio State to beat Louisville in the final to be crowned this yearÕs champion. Broosevelt looked to be heading for a rough ride early on when Missouri and Michigan both took a spanking in the first round. But it takes more than a spanking to kill a bull moose. Of course, maybe that something more will be the fact that Hughes, a Michigan alumnus, now has to root for Ohio State.


The other player rooting for Ohio State is Quik Picks (Bill Snider). Snider is currently in 21st place, but if the Buckeyes prevail over Kentucky, the wily veteran wins the championship. Snider is in his eighth consecutive year of competition, and he has four top 21 finishes and two top 12 finishes to his credit. He gave me his t-shirt size before the competition started, and I wonÕt be surprised if I need him to send me his address next week.


All players should check out Tournament Scenarios, which I posted Sunday night. Tournament Scenarios shows you where you will finish in each of the eight remaining possible outcomes. You can click through the scenarios at the bottom of the screen.